Si vis Pacem, para Bellum (If you want peace, prepare for war)

It seems pretty interesting how the complexity of life hits with its random behavior to our lives, in this case, was with war and strife at a possibly global level, or at least with global effects. Also, history seems to move in circles, like what Vico long ago wrote about and what Peter Turchin explains from complexity sciences. Now, history seems to move spirally or in possible circles. That is, history repeats itself. The “si vis Pacem, para Bellum” is a point in case.

Such thinking, if you want peace, prepare for war, was a commonality from 1815 until 1919, this long century started with the French army commanded by Napoleon being defeated by the Russian Tzar Alexander I, and during such a long century, countries seemed to be undergoing an arms race, why? Because of the ever-present possibility of a nation growing its army and wanting to invade another country, all the countries in central Europe were entrenched in this arms race. It is interesting that in 1898 it was another Tzar, in this case, Tzar Nicholas II, who randomly joined the pacifist movements to call for a Peace Conference. Rumor is he did not know the time and place precisely in 1898.

By happenstance, all took place in the Hague in 1899.

However, what is essential, is that the Tzar’s call for peace was not an initial call for peace. It was an initial call for disarmament and a stop to the arms race where all the first-world countries seemed entrenched. He was right. However, he did not have moral support since Russia went to war with Japan in 1904 and previously had suffocated a revolution in Finland.

Now, with the Russian invasion, and paradoxically the Ukrainian invasion with Russia, it seems that all the countries are in an arms race, and this could end in the policy of “if you want peace, prepare for war” such preparedness philosophy is not a call for feeling more secure, instead, the opposite, an arms race where countries will be waging war to “feel safe at home” which could cause a negative spiral, that of a large scale war. When and where could it happen? I surely don’t know, but the casualties and harm will be ferocious. And the policy of cooperation will be replaced.