Recently I finished reading Peter Turchin’s book “War and Peace and War” he departs from a methodology of Complex Systems. What I can get from his book that I recommend widely is that history moves mechanically, as was proposed by Vico. However, instead of history moving linearly, it moves in cycles. In other words, it repeats itself.
The exciting part is that if we take some of his claims, we can see that it is occurring possibly war between empires right now. For Turchin, an empire is “a large multiethnic territorial state with complex power structure” from him, the European Union, the US, China, and Russia are empires. Out of the four, Russia is the one that is in decline. The frontier between Russia and the European Union runs a metaethics frontier with a divide of “us versus them” situation. It could be “us” Russians versus “them” Europeans or vice-versa. In this barrier, Ukraine acts as a metaethinc frontier between the two. The war is causing the Ukrainians might see themselves not only as Ukrainians but also as Europeans rather than Russians. However, there are zones in Ukraine where they feel more Russians than Europeans, although departing from the same Ukrainian identity.
Being European in Ukraine causes as well that the line running between Russia and Europe becomes hardened with more preparedness for war, pace para bellum if you want peace to prepare for war. From both sides, there is an arms race.
The Russian invasion, seeking to gain more land, is causing the European Union to win more land. So there is a jump from neutrality to being NATO members by Sweden and Finland for one side. I don’t know if Switzerland will look for this in the foreseeable future.
The invasion of Ukraine can be seen as a push forward by Russia to expand as a territorial empire. Indirectly, the US and the Europe Union, by sending all kinds of support to Ukraine, are entering into a possible war, which right now is indirect. Still, war, nevertheless, after the conclusion of the war could be the end of Putin.
“The age of empires is not over. The age of emperors is.”
The US, Europe, and China are governed collectively. Xi’s government is subject to periodic revisions. The US is run by a federal government, and the Europe Union has a parliament and representatives.
The war is not only between Ukraine and Russia. It is between empires. For now, the US and European are against Russia, modern ones. The battlefield, however, is in Ukraine.