War and the Lindy Effect

The Austro-Prussian and Franco-Prussian Wars provided decisive victory in a brief time. They did not carry the lesson that war itself is disastrous. But the contrary lesson was too well learned. World War I could be initiated in part because it was believed that it would be decided in a few short months. One of the adversaries would seize the offensive and carry the war to a successful conclusion by supremacy of the plan or supremacy of the will. Pre-existing resource patterns, as they were understood, were not an effective deterrent to the Great War of 1914″ R.N. Rosecrance

The above quote comes at a juncture of the war in Ukraine by the Russian invasion. Putin might have been overconfident that the war was to be over in couple of weeks, now that the days are accumulating then there is a Lindy Effect type kicking in.

What is the Lindy Effect? In accordance to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, what is perishable, another day of its existence is a shorter life expectancy, what is non-perishable, say the wars, then another day of its existence is a longer life expectancy. And this war has more than a couple of months, so, if war has elapsed 4 months and 6 days to this day, then it most likely will stay another 4 months and 6 days. Probably more if you start crunching numbers à la Taleb.

So, future-thinking in this matter, and does not look good. WWII developed just as an invasion from one country to the other, as it was WWI, and then it went on a spiral incremental form, days converted into weeks, and weeks into months. Then it took the shape of a World War on an incremental basis, not ina full-blown war from day one. Example, France was invaded serving as a buffer zone between the UK and Germany, now the buffer zone between Europe and Russia is Ukraine. If the life expectancy of the war is incremented, possibly as well will be the participants in it.

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